Patch 11.0 Pre-Patch Prep: What to Stockpile Now
Pre-patch windows are controlled volatility. Systems unlock early, player behavior shifts sharply, and consumption exceeds baseline for 10–18 days. Patch 11.0 amplifies this with profession re-spec incentives and anticipated raid preparation gating. Smart stockpiling is not hoarding everything—it is capital allocation into materials whose probability-weighted demand curve steepens faster than supply can adapt.
1. Patch Cycle Dynamics
Understand the three demand waves that shape price trajectories:
- Systems Unlock Wave: Players testing reworked profession nodes, experimenting with crafted item slots, burning mid-tier reagents.
- Gear Harmonization Wave: Pre-raid gearing + socketing + enchant stabilization; emphasis on steady, repeatable consumables.
- Raid Launch Acceleration: Surge in flask/potion/food/augment runes, last-minute enchant recalibration, BoE speculation climax then corrects.
2. Historical Demand Spikes
Reviewing prior cycles (normalized):
- Refinement Reagents: 22–55% average uplift mid pre-patch, tapering 48h pre-raid as supply catches scripts.
- Mid-tier Herbs: Spike earlier than high-end due to experimentation, then reprice downward before rally into first reset.
- Enchant Base Components: Stable baseline followed by synchronized lift (often within a 6h global window) when mainstream guides publish.
- BoE Launch Pieces: High variance. Only treat as speculative tranche, never core stockpile.
3. Priority Stockpile Tiers
Tier 1 (Core)
- Refinement reagents
- High-use enchant shards
- Baseline potion / flask mats
- Versatile cooking staples
Tier 2 (Support)
- Mid-tier herbs (testing)
- Socket currency inputs
- Optional upgrade components
- Profession spec reagents
Tier 3 (Speculative)
- Early BoE stat combos
- Cosmetic craft catalysts
- Rare drop augment runes
- Niche profession byproducts
Allocate capital with a declining risk gradient: 55–65% Tier 1, 25–30% Tier 2, 10–15% Tier 3 unless realm volatility is unusually low (then shrink Tier 3).
4. Material Playbooks
Refinement Reagents
Acquire during off-peak (late night local) where spreads widen. Target buy price ≤ 78% of prior 7-day mean.
- Exit tranche 1 at +18% uplift, tranche 2 at +30% or 48h pre-raid (whichever first).
- Avoid listing more than 12% of visible quantity to reduce triggering a wall response.
Potion / Flask Inputs
Demand forms a plateau after initial spike; slow-repricing sellers create undercut ladders you can sweep selectively.
- Track crafted margin after fees; if < 14% switch inventory to raw sale.
- Bundle sell final 48h into raid—avoid last 3 hours (panic undercuts).
Enchant Components
Lagging spike means accumulation window persists longer.
- If guide release timestamp known, pre-list 30–40 min earlier at premium tiers.
- Disenchant shuffle only if shard margin > crafted margin by 10%.
Socket Currency Inputs
Stable ramp—avoid overbuying early; curve intensifies near raid open.
- Swing trade micro dips caused by mass relisting behaviors.
- Exit 70% of stack allocation after first raid reset.
Speculative BoEs
Treat as lottery EV, never core. Price decays rapidly once raid clears establish real BIS adoption rates.
- List early if stat weight changes were buff-side ambiguous.
- Hard stop loss: -20% from entry or 24h past raid launch.
5. Timing & Exit Strategy
- Phase Tagging: Tag every purchase log with (EXP / TEST / RAMP / EXIT). Enables post-mortem ROI clarity.
- Rolling Tranches: Sell in 3–5 waves; avoid single liquidation event that triggers walls.
- Opportunity Substitution: If fresh catalyst emerges (hotfix change) reallocate lower conviction Tier 2 first.
- Premature Rally: If Tier 1 hits +35% pre-raid earlier than expected, bank gains—parabolic tails often collapse.
6. Capital Allocation Framework
Total Liquid Capital: 100% Reserve Safety Buffer : 15% (never deployed; fees + agility) Core Allocation (Tier 1) : 55–65% Support Allocation (Tier 2) : 20–30% Speculative (Tier 3) : 10–15% Emergency Rebalance Trigger : If unrealized Tier 1 gain > 28% while Tier 2 < 8%, rotate 10% from Tier 1 to Tier 2 Stop Loss (Speculative) : -18% from entry OR catalyst invalidation Target Realized ROI Basket : 22–26% blended by raid week +1
7. Risk Controls
- Deposit Efficiency: High deposit items limited to 2 relist cycles before liquidation or conversion.
- Concentration Check: Any single item > 18% of deployed capital triggers staged exit plan.
- Hotfix Surveillance: Monitor official adjustments; immediate revaluation if material drop rate / recipe changes.
- Temporal Hedging: Split buys across at least 3 daily time windows to avoid anchoring to one volatility slice.
- Liquidity Floor: Always retain 7 days of projected posting fees + shuffle margin buffer.
8. Sample Timeline Calendar
D-14 to D-10 : Light accumulation Tier 1 (baseline price scouting) 25% target fill D-09 to D-07 : Increase Tier 1 to 55% fill; begin Tier 2 probing (10%) D-06 to D-04 : Expand Tier 2 (20–25%); start small Tier 3 entries (≤5%) D-03 : Reassess catalysts; trim any premature rally items D-02 to D-01 : Final Tier 1 top-ups only if < +12% from baseline Launch (Pre) : List first tranches (15–20%) of Tier 1 high velocity mats Launch (Post) : Monitor guide-induced spikes; deploy staged exits Raid -48h : Sell remaining volatile potion inputs Raid Launch : Exit majority Tier 2; retain defensible long-tail enchants Raid +1 Reset : Evaluate holding residual socket / shard positions
9. TL;DR Quick Reference
Allocation
- Core 55–65%
- Support 20–30%
- Speculative 10–15%
- Buffer 15%
Triggers
- +30% early = partial exit
- Spec -18% = cut
- Wall ≥ 15 stacks = stagger
Execution
- Log phases per buy
- Sell in waves
- Avoid last-hour panic
Risk
- Diversify tiers
- Respect deposits
- Track concentration
All guidance is probabilistic and must be adapted to live realm pricing, patch notes and hotfix cadence. Maintain manual logs; they are your post-cycle refinement tool. Operate within game terms and avoid exploitative sourcing.